Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.392652 2.545512 2.707850 2.893899 3.102245 3.329571 3.598019
2025-05-04 2.201716 2.415626 2.655132 2.946164 3.294458 3.703562 4.229313
2025-05-11 2.040967 2.284038 2.565784 2.922047 3.368995 3.923618 4.685584
2025-05-18 1.922507 2.184166 2.495672 2.902207 3.432294 4.121522 5.126456
2025-05-25 1.824002 2.097415 2.430022 2.875572 3.475870 4.288961 5.540711
2025-06-01 1.740683 2.021924 2.370353 2.847690 3.509597 4.439911 5.947208
2025-06-08 1.681259 1.971585 2.337557 2.849916 3.580848 4.647395 6.470895
2025-06-15 1.640172 1.941372 2.327582 2.880125 3.691564 4.923058 7.156051
2025-06-22 1.575287 1.876371 2.266952 2.834198 3.684412 5.011887 7.527254
2025-06-29 1.514967 1.814348 2.206653 2.783925 3.664968 5.076292 7.862496
2025-07-06 1.454501 1.749477 2.139135 2.718606 3.616157 5.084814 8.087319
2025-07-13 1.433594 1.736566 2.142119 2.755916 3.730571 5.384769 8.983659
2025-07-20 1.417424 1.729837 2.153943 2.808068 3.875460 5.763204 10.183649
2025-07-27 1.400012 1.720500 2.161333 2.853573 4.013362 6.150418 11.556951
2025-08-03 1.363527 1.683063 2.126291 2.830390 4.030588 6.303764 12.375627
2025-08-10 1.330735 1.649544 2.095351 2.811549 4.053260 6.470760 13.304122
2025-08-17 1.298222 1.615251 2.061750 2.786279 4.061804 6.608798 14.208214
2025-08-24 1.267320 1.582214 2.028640 2.759819 4.065668 6.736999 15.146602
2025-08-31 1.245779 1.561839 2.013551 2.761932 4.122676 6.993243 16.698390
2025-09-07 1.232256 1.552491 2.014549 2.790598 4.232502 7.392103 19.121187
2025-09-14 1.201318 1.516879 1.974165 2.747011 4.197389 7.433001 20.013575
2025-09-21 1.170803 1.481118 1.932446 2.699272 4.150679 7.439045 20.763102
2025-09-28 1.138102 1.441411 1.883541 2.637202 4.071273 7.352007 21.001913